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March 29, 2005

Bahraini Demonstrations

Thanks to Head Heeb and Chan'ad Bahraini for bringing to my attention recent developments in the island emirate of Bahrain. I have a special affection for Bahrain, despite never having been there or even met a Bahraini; the reason is that Bahrain is an interesting case of a post-oil Gulf State. The country has largely depleted its oil reserves and actually has begun to import NG from neigboring Qatar. The country still does export much crude oil, but the level is less than half its 1970 peak, and revenues are of course far less than they were in 1980. Local resources are used to power energy-intensive industries like smelting aluminum, and the Kingdom relies heavily on helping its neighbors spend their immense wealth (what with Manama being a major financial center); introducing industry is a lot tougher than it sounds.

Bahrain has been the seat of ocean-going commerce for millenia; it has also long been a seat of radical religious movements, such as the Kharijite Movement, the Isma'ili Shi'a, and so on.1 Although the ruling al-Khalifa clan is Sunni, about 75% are Shi'a. About 35% of Bahrain is expatriate, and I do not know if the 75% figure includes expats from, say, Iran or Iraq. Indigenous Shi'a Arabs are known as Bahranah, while Iranian Shi'a are Ajam. There is also a small cohort of indigenous Arab Christians, and a Jewish community.

Anyway, Mahmood has posted a little about the demonstrations in Manamah (he's also posted about discrimination against the majority Shi'a), and notes that the demonstrations were organized by al-Wefaq, a Shi'a party that has poor-concealed authoritarian tendencies. A relatively harsh description of al-Wefaq may be found here (Or Does It Explode?).

Bottom line: getting 15% of a nation's population to participate in a protest calling for a constitutional reform is an impressive feat; however, readers concerned about sectarian control of the state are naturally going to be concerned because this reform would essentially end checks on al-Wefaq's utter domination of the lower house of parliament. I personally suspect a big motivator for Shi'a participants in the marches was discrimination in government employment, not a craving for al-Wefaq to get everything it wants.



NOTES: 1 After the death of Muhammad al-Rasul (SAW) in 632 CE, two factions arose over the question of his successor. One side argued for an elective khalifa (successor), and chose Abu Bakr. The other demanded that only a lineal descendant of the Prophet could succeed him, and that would mean his son-in-law Ali bin Abi Thalib. Followers of Ali became known as the Shi'a 'Ali (Party of Ali), hence "Shi'a" or "Shi'ite." This quarrel became more acrimonious after Uthman was assassinated (656), allegedly by a Shi'a, and his family held Ali responsible. Ali succeeded Uthman, and Uthman's family launched a civil war. During this war, Ali sought arbitration, which caused some of his supporters to leave and form the Khariji. Later, one of these assassinated Ali (661) and Uthman's family (led by Mu'awiya) founded the Umayyad Dynasty in Damascus.

The civil war left, therefore, the Sunnis, who account for about 92% of all Muslims worldwide; the Shi'a, who account for >7%; and the Khariji, who have always been a tiny, exceptionally austere group. In 707 Kharijites occupied Bahrain and remained until driven out in 723. Today, the royal family and about 75% of the population of Oman are Ibadhi Muslim, which is identified with the Khariji. It must be mentioned, though, that Ibadhis usually deny any connection with the Khariji.

The Isma'ili are a denomination of Shi'a who are a definite minority, even among the Shi'a. There are a few enclaves, such as the former South Yemen, a few towns in Tunisia, Syria, and Libya. Larger communities exist in India and Pakistan. Bahrain has long been a seat of militant Isma'ilis, although in recent centuries Isma'ilis have become more associated with learning and commerce than with any sort of violence.

The Druze and Alawait of Syria branched off from Isma'ili Shi'ism almost a thousand years ago.

About 80% or so of Shi'a are Ithna Ashari. Ithna Ashari account for 90% of the population of Iran, >80% of Azerbaijan, 60% of Iraq, >45% of Lebanon, and >8% of Los Angeles. There are also substantial communities of Ithna Ashari in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey, Daghestan AR [in Russia], and of course, the Gulf. In fact, I think they are a majority in Qatar and there are an awful lot of them in the vicinity of Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.

Posted by James R MacLean at March 29, 2005 10:18 PM
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