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This post has been rewritten; comments below refer to a prior version of this post, which was riddled with errors.
By now, I believe all readers will know that London was struck by four bombs during the commute hour. First, I wish to express my condolences to the people of London for this (Independent time line). At this time, there are 37 believed to have been killed, mostly in the London Tube. One of the shorter and more succinct summaries I've seen is here, at Global Guerrillas.
This is a direct replay of the successful Madrid bombings and follows the pattern of system disruption we see emerging globally (a move to economic sabotage that was anticipated by this analyst). As we know, a single series of attacks on this scale will not harm a city's economics (see Urban Takedowns for more) in a lasting way. A "terrorism tax" that deflates the economic equilibrium of a major urban environment requires a series of attacks over a period of months that changes basic behavior....That seems like the safest conclusion. However, I would like to prod a bit deeper.
Attacks of this type aren't aimed at the moral defeat of the UK's population. They are an "insult" meant to prompt more global fragmentation (an increase in military activity, isolation, and instability). Think in terms of "effects based" operations, particularly effects that damage the economies of target countries
Another, well-reasoned and unimpeachable essay is offered by Prof. Juan Cole (Informed Comment). Again, I suspect there is an additional twist to the attacks that makes the picture somewhat more complex, but I'll get to that presently.
Polly Toynbee (Guardian) also has some perceptive and philosophical remarks on the significance of the attacks: they are, to all intents and purposes, meaningless.
...In a way it hardly matters who did it or why.As one who has spent a lot of time and energy trying to understand why terrorism occurs and how political systems foster it, I have to admit that it's not obvious. It's exasperating that our society makes the same mistakes endlessly, but it's actually hard to explain which act is a mistake. The terrorist may believe, in his own inverted righteousness, that it ought to be obvious, but it is not.Random atrocity has become part of the modern weather, almost as devoid of meaning as typhoons. The minds of those who did it seem too remote to understand, too unknowable a twister to summon up much rage or thirst for revenge. A thousand questions about fanaticism will go for ever unanswered. Of course we must detect, prevent and expunge it as best we can - but it is a monstrous force of unreason beyond arguing with.
Now, let's turn to the matter of who benefits from these monstrous acts. In my opinion, there is clearly a "repressed" class struggle underway in much of the Muslim world, and the elites in the more traditionally-minded regimes are threatened by this struggle (HC). They rely on confessional identity politics to de-class the struggle in Islamic society, to strip politics of its class character.
Al-Qaeda is allowed to "take credit" for everything, which serves the strategic interests of the conservative (because "Islamic national"-istic) ruling elites. The potential of class consciousness is thwarted, and a chimerical "Islamic nationalism" drives out social justice as a goal. Western intelligence perceives no threat to their interests by allowing al-Qaeda to bask in "the reflected glory" of the actual perpetrators; al-Qaeda does not propagate a coherent ideology of social transformation.

LINKS TO PUBLIC AL-QAEDA/UbL STATEMENTS: For the following links, I am indebted to Mark T.A.W., who provides considerable detail:
Robert Fisk describes his encounter with 'Usama bin Ladin (6th Dec 1996)
'Usama bin Ladin interview with Robert Fisk (1996)
'Usama bin Laden interview with Nida'ul Islam (1996)
'Usama Bin Laden interview with Peter Arnett (CNN, 1997)
Frontline: Who is bin Laden?: interview with 'Usama bin Laden (May 1998)
Jan 11, 1999 issue of Time-Asia
Yup, the IOC decision was announced prior to the attacks.
Posted by: demonsurfer at July 8, 2005 03:20 AMI can assure you the bombs were being delivered and plans made for weeks if not months prior to todays bombing. So the IOC announcement had no bearing on todays attack. If anybody believes this was due to the IOC decision they are deluded.
Posted by: Rob at July 8, 2005 06:26 AMFolks, sorry. I was severely underinformed on this one. I learned after publishing that the IOC announced the day before, whereas I found out both events about the same time. I'm going to be deleting this post as you have read it, so--profuse apologies, but what I wrote is just babble.
Posted by: James R MacLean at July 8, 2005 07:57 AMHmm...
I am not saying in any way that the IOC Decision for London to hold the 2012 games was the cause, but it cannot be ruled out either. (and no, I am not deluded, just open minded :) )
To say that because the announcement came so close to the bombing that the terrorists could not have time to prepare for it is a falsehood. We have known for quite some time the five cities in the running, so it would not be difficult for *any* group to decide to target the local city should it win.
To be fair, I do believe it was the G8 that was the reason, but a perfect storm was in place... The G8, the IOC decision, Guiliani was in London at the time, etc.
As I wrote on my blog, the why is not nearly as important as the how and the who. The why is not something that can be controlled, but by learning the who and how we can try to prevent another attack using the same vector and group...
Jeepers Mr MacLean, not so fast.
This folk thinks there is no cause for apology. This folk thinks you rarely babble (I am thinking hard now about the Sheherazade card as a possible, very remote instance of a babble.) Severely underinformed? I don't think so.
What difference does it make that the IOC lets it be known a day before the blasts, rather than on that same day, or for that matter, even after the blasts?
I can see the terrorists taking their Paris bombs apart as the announcement that London would get the games is made. But not really.
There is the formal G-8 annoucements with all their self-importance and pomp and ceremony. And then there is this other stark, bloody, and not so ceremonial message from London that lets us know where reality is.
Thanks, Calmo. OTOH,what happened was I found out about the bombing, then, the IOC decision (so I thought the IOC decision came after the bombing. Demonsurfer picked up on this, but Rob thought I knew the correct order of events. Rob suspected I thought the perpetrators acted upon discovering the IOC decision, while I had wondered if perpetrators influenced the IOC decision.
While terror attacks do indeed require months to plan and prepare for, the execution date is often tentative until within a few hours of the act. It depends on the logistics; in this case, it appears the attacks were perpetrated by suicide bombers carrying bookbags of explosives.
Of course, I rewrote the post entirely because I was in a mental fog.
Posted by: James R MacLean at July 11, 2005 06:54 AM