Romanian Archive

Romanian Presidential, Parliamentary Elections Sunday

November 28, 2004

Hobson's Choice, like Doug Muir (Fistful of Euros), was reminded of the Romanian Mineriads in the context of Ukraine's recent elections (the Ukrainian government allegedly bussed in absentee voters from the mining regions of Eastern Ukraine, ensuring an unusually high count for Yanukovych on 21 November). As it happens, Romania is also having elections-Sunday. The stakes are perhaps a little higher than in Ukraine, as voters will not only chose a president, but a new parliament too (IHT, RFE, Election World).

Like the Ukrainian elections, neither presidential candidate is an incumbent. Ion Iliescu, leader of the country since 1989, is stepping down and supporting current Prime Minister Adrian Nastase of the Social Democratic Party. PM Nastase enjoys heavy support from the state controlled media and the country's oligarchy; his campaign color is, like his approximate Ukrainian equivalent, PM Viktor Yanukovych, blue. Challenging him is Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu of the Liberal & Democrat Alliance; ideologically close to Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko, he also uses the color orange.

Opinion polls suggest that the race-as in Ukraine-will be a close one; making matters murky is the face that many candidates will be contesting the first round of elections, and it is quite possible that the landscape will be quite different if neither candidate wins an outright majority Sunday (CPOD-Canada). If that is the case, then developments in Ukraine next door will doubtless have an effect on the outcome. If Moscow should intervene militarily in the Ukrainian elections, or if the Ukrainian Supreme Court certifies Yanukovych as the winner (still quite possible, after all-the parliamentary vote is not binding) then Romanians might react sharply against Mr. Nastase-who is, after all, closely associated with the self-reconstructed Communists who seized power after Ceausescu's "execution" of Christmas Day, 1989.

Sadly, your humble correspondent is unfit to comment at length on the parliamentary race, beyond repeating what is mentioned in the CPOD article-viz., that Mr. Nastase's ruling coalition (the National Union) holds a 7% lead over the Justice & Truth Coalition, and this is likely to lead to a larger preponderance of NU seats in the parliament. However, neither coalition would likely win a majority of seats in the lower house of parliament.

MAJOR ISSUES:

EU Accession negotiations with Bucharest are to begin 17 December; Pierre Moscovici, the rapporteur for EU affairs, wants Romania in the EU by 2007, which EuPolitix also seems to think likely. The Miami Herald mentions a new sitcom, "The Winding Road to Europe," that satirizes the EU (albeit very mildly; its barbs could be directed with similar justice to modern US or Australian bureaucracy, too).

Also of interest is the legal status of Transylvanians, a group whose members speak Magyar and identify with Hungary to the north; Laura, who has travelled in Transylvania and has a close friend in this region, emphatically assures me that the Transylvanians are actually a distinct group from Hungarians or ethnic Wallachians/Moldovans (the latter are the majority in Romania); as such, they tend to be in competition with the ethnic Romanians for scarce jobs and educational opportunities, and in one sense the Transylvanian Hungarians (who are running their own candidate in the presidential elections) are likely to provoke rural voters into voting for Nastase, to spite them. However, the news reports (like this one in the FT) suggest that public works and corruption will be the top issues.

HANDY SOURCE: Iulia Stoicescu & Mihai Botea (Business in Romania);

Romanian Elections-ditto Ukraine

November 30, 2004

The outcome of Romania's presidential elections was strikingly similar to those of the first round in Ukraine: the incumbent party, with a decade's worth of undiluted power and control over the media, won a plurality of votes in the first round of elections (Reuters). The two top presidential vote getters, Prime Adrian Nastase of the Social Democratic Party (PSD; the former Romanian Communists) and Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu of the Liberal & Democratic Party will face off now 12 December.

As I mentioned before, the Romanians also elected the lower house of parliament (unlike Ukraine); the new parliament appears to have a sharply reduced number of PSD-Humanist Party seats, "well short of a majority." The percentages of the two candidates are about the same. UKRAINE: President Leonid Kuchma has backed up the Ukrainian Parliament by calling for new elections (Reuters). This is it, folks. Constitutionally, new elections must be held.

Romania & Ukraine notes

December 14, 2004

Romania has just chosen a new president, Traian Basescu, of the "Orange" Liberal & Democrat Alliance. Many readers may wonder what is in store for Romania as it makes an historic break with the Iliescu/Ceascescu years (BBC, AP). His next job will be forming a coalition so he can get a prime minister in office; coalition partners are likely to include the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR) and the Humanist Party, which perhaps suggests that his "nationalism" is not directed against Romania's significant Magyar-speaking minority. (Section pertinant to Romania; rest of article here)