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Zen & Labor Markets-3May 28, 2004[ 1 | 2 ]Now we reach the part I was keen to explain. All along I've been speaking of the labor market in a conventional way; that there are cohorts of workers for whom there is a supply of labor, and markets for that labor which are driven by price. A complicating factor is segmentation—the fact that most humans are in "labor markets" which are segmented, and often "crowded."1 But the notion of a labor market with a natural inclination to "clear" is still a notion I've been operating under. I've tended to assume there exists such a thing as a "natural" rate of employment, which is a macroeconomic concept; there's a level of unemployment such that any further job growth leads to inflationary pressures, and if that level is to get any lower, it's a microeconomic issue. James K Galbraith argues in the paper linked above that this is a fallacy. Labor markets don't behave as predicted in the neoclassical theory because wages cannot adjust in any plausible way: The idea that people can readily be switched from one line of work to another would appear to stem from the idea that labor time is a commodity with a coherent meaning, and this notion is an extension of nineteenth-century abstractions about labor that have lost their slight purchase in real world conditions over the course of the present century. The manual worker with general skills hired out by the day for odd jobs at a negotiable wage is a fringe case. Everybody else is linked to a social network that dictates within broad bands terms of employment specific to his or her skills and background. The small actions that lend intuitive plausibility at the micro level to the concept of a market for fish (“Atlantic Salmon $5.99! Special Today!”) are never observed in the so-called market for labor. Wages are not set in response to the short-term variations of supply and demand, but rather by a complex process of relevant comparisons, within and across occupations, industries, and the characteristics and qualifications of the worker. ("Dangerous Metaphor", Galbraith, p.11)Hence, the supply of labor hours is not, either in the short run or the long, responsive to wages or marginal revenue product. Intuitively, it makes sense to your correspondent that a firm expands production at the margins in this way, but the aggregate demand for labor and its supply is not at all a well-behaved market. For example, because workers are also consumers, and because they are determined to defend their relative share of the national product, Keynes observed that the "labor market" cannot restore clearing equilibrium merely by the reduction in wages—and not merely because of the labor unions the neo-classical economists inveighed against. What are the political implications of this? Galbraith points out there are two basic attitudes. One is the "naturalist" who spouts free market shiboleths; the other is the NAIRUvian, the "neo-Keynesian" for whom the persistence of unemployment above the natural rate is a legitimate possibility. It may reflect a failure of relevant markets to clear with satisfactory speed, a disorder that NAIRUvians acknowledge to be possible. That being so, there may be no harm in policy measures to speed the return to the NAIRU as long as a “soft landing” at the NAIRU is carefully engineered. (Ibid., p.13)Galbraith argues that economists need to reject the entire notion of a labor market, in favor of a job structure with entirely different behavior. Whereas now, economists try to simplify their explanation of how the labor market works by eliminating rigidities, Galbraith proposes to leave the rigidities at the core of the analysis.2 What is the job structure? It is a historically, socially, and politically specific set of status and pay relationships in the economy, within and between firms, within and across industries. I will assert here that a job structure always exists, and has to exist, in every society. Otherwise, relative pay would be wholly underdetermined—market forces being insufficient to do the job of setting wage rates and job characteristics—and chaos would prevail. (Ibid., p.15)My charts and explanations of why labor markets don't reach a full-employment equilibrium, Galbraith would argue, don't really amount to very much because I'm pretending that the management at my imaginary Wal-Mart store has some idea how productive each segment of its workforce is. Such an analysis cannot exist. Hence, some workers may be adding value far in excess of what it costs to employ them and the management will never know. Galbraith now turns to the question of understanding this concept of the job structure. He did a study of the labor force by dividing workers into six cohorts; readers will consider other methods of dividing the cohorts (I have some ideas already!). I thought his categories were analogous to treating the sectors of the economy as six different national economies that have various advantages and disadvantages with respect to each other. His main point seems to be that wages must move in formation to each other, rather than balancing as a typical economist would assume. He also rejects the position economic and political liberals usually share, that possession of a good educational system and infrastructure affect economic growth. The educational system of the United States is unquestionably deficient in important respects. It includes large public school systems in which resources are starved and education is said not to occur. These failings are a social and political tragedy and a cultural crime. They have much to do with the persistence of race-based differences in the earnings and opportunity structure.Here I must disagree with Galbraith. The fact that America is filled with highly skilled people and that many American schools are horrible, does not mean bad education is a drag on the economy. It means the problem with American education is its unevenness, the fact that it fails perhaps 12-20% of students. While that would be, as Galbraith says, a moral failing, it still leaves an ample cohort of adequately educated people. Adequate for what? To learn productive occupational skills—something most Americans do on leaving school. Education is a merit good; much of the income potential of an education is enjoyed by people who are neighbors and members of the same economy as the educated person. If literacy rates are low, a highly educated person usually has the best career opportunities abroad, not at home. But Galbraith's broader point is entirely valid—that business, while it has a great influence on American education policy, exerts it in ways that benefit business and fellow members of the managerial cohort, not the vast majority of Americans. Galbraith also makes some very good points about infrastructure spending, which shall require a longer quote: Public works are the fastest, most direct way to put the unemployed to work. They have direct and multiplier effects on total employment. They have the side benefit that the works themselves remain useful for many decades after they are completed [...]The obvious conclusion is that, if a supply-side approach is used to reduce the impoverishment of a particular group, then that program must be designed to do precisely that. The remainder of the essay is dedicated to the argument that relative wages are a political issue, not a market one; in fact, Galbraith doesn't offer another analytical tool so much as the surmise that one does not exist, and the real answer is political institutions. Galbraith outlines his views of an ideal economy, which are less interesting because they require hyperactive benevolence and that's not a feature of this society. However, I will be returning to the parts that do interest me—namely, how to think about the job structure. PERSONAL NOTE TO FREQUENT READER: Yes, as a matter of a fact I was thinking of Karl Polanyi. He did indeed argue that the chimerical market for labor was shared by an equally chimerical market for land and money [finance capital]. NOTES: 1 A segmented labor market is one in which workers cannot move from one occupation to another; for example, because of racial and gender discrimination, caste, or restrictions on movement. In China, for example, workers cannot relocate to another prefecture without permission from their current employer and a party official. In England during the period of the Tudors, there were sharp restrictions on mobility from one parish to another.A crowded labor market is one in which there is a large number of people who have no alternatives to employment in that narrow portion of the labor market; for example, inner city residents often face crowded labor markets. 2 A "rigidity" is anything that prevents a market from adjusting, like price controls or gender discrimination. |